Polelo ea theko ea Lithium: Na theko e tla boloka poho ea eona e sebetsa?
Litheko tsa lithium tsa boemo ba betri li fokotsehile libekeng tse fetileng leha ho na le khaello ea phepelo e tsoelang pele le thekiso e matla ea likoloi tsa motlakase lefatšeng ka bophara.
Litheko tsa beke le beke tsa lithium hydroxide (bonyane ba 56.5% LiOH2O betri grade) li ne li lekana le $75,000 ka tonne ($75 a kilogram) litšenyehelo, inshorense le thepa (CIF) motheong oa 7 July, ho tloha ho $81,500 ka 7 May, ho latela London Metal. Phapanyetsano (LME) le setsi sa tlaleho ea litheko Fastmarkets.
Litheko tsa Lithium carbonate naheng ea China li khutletse ho CNY475,500/tonne ($70,905.61) ho elella bofelong ba Phuptjane, ho tloha ho rekoto e phahameng ea CNY500,000 ka Hlakubele, ho latela mofani oa lintlha tsa moruo Trading Economics.
Leha ho le joalo, litheko tsa lithium carbonate le lithium hydroxide - lisebelisoa tse tala bakeng sa ho etsa libeteri tsa koloi ea motlakase (EV) - li ntse li le habeli ho tloha theko ea mathoasong a January.
Na the downtrend ke blip ea nakoana feela?Sengoliloeng sena re hlahloba litaba tsa morao-rao tsa 'maraka le lintlha tsa tlhoko ea phepelo tse etsang likhakanyo tsa theko ea lithium.
Tlhaloso ea 'maraka oa lithium
Lithium ha e na 'maraka oa bokamoso kaha ke' maraka oa tšepe o batlang o le monyane ho latela boholo ba khoebo.Leha ho le joalo, sebaka sa 'maraka sa CME Group se na le bokamoso ba lithium hydroxide, se sebelisang tlhahlobo ea theko ea lithium hydroxide e phatlalalitsoeng ke Fastmarkets.
Ka selemo sa 2019, LME ka kopanelo le Fastmarkets e ile ea qala theko ea litšupiso e ipapisitseng le index ea beke le beke ea khoebo ea libaka motheong oa CIF China, Japan le Korea.
China, Japane le Korea ke limmaraka tse tharo tse kholo ka ho fetisisa tsa lithium tse tsamaeang ka leoatleng.Theko ea sebaka sa lithium linaheng tseo e nkoa e le letšoao la indasteri bakeng sa lithium tsa boemo ba betri.
Ho latela lintlha tsa nalane, litheko tsa lithium li theohile pakeng tsa 2018 le 2020 ka lebaka la ho fana ka glut joalo ka basebetsi ba merafong, joalo ka Pilbara Minerals le Altura Mining, tlhahiso e eketsehileng.
Theko ea lithium hydroxide e theohile ho $ 9 kilogram ka 30 December 2020, ho tloha ho $ 20.5 / kg ka 4 January 2018. Lithium carbonate e rekisitsoe ka $ 6.75 / kg ka 30 December 2020, ho tloha ho $ 19.25 ka 4 January 2018.
Litheko li qalile ho nyoloha mathoasong a 2021 ka lebaka la kholo e matla ea EV ha moruo oa lefats'e o ntse o phahama ho tsoa litlamorao tsa seoa sa Covid-19.Theko ea lithium carbonate e nyolohile ka makhetlo a robong ho tloha ho $ 6.75 / kg mathoasong a Pherekhong 2021, athe lithium hydroxide e eketsehile ka makhetlo a supileng ho tloha ho $ 9.
HoGlobal EV Outlook 2022e hatisitsoeng ka May, International Energy Agency (IEA)
Litheko tse tlalehiloeng tsa li-EV li imenne habeli ka 2021 ho tloha selemong se fetileng ho rekoto e ncha ea li-unit tse 6.6m.Palo eohle ea likoloi tsa motlakase litseleng lefatšeng ka bophara e fihlile ho 16.5m, e imenne hararo ho tloha palo ea 2018.
Karolong ea pele ea selemo sena, likoloi tsa EV tse limilione tse 2 li ile tsa rekisoa, ho nyoloha ka 75% selemo le selemo (YOY).
Leha ho le joalo, litheko tsa lithium carbonate 'marakeng oa Asia-Pacific li theohile kotareng ea bobeli ha ho phatloha ho hocha ha Covid-19 naheng ea China, e ileng ea etsa hore mmuso o qobelle ho koaloa ha thepa, e amme phepelo ea thepa e tala.
Ho latela bohlale ba 'maraka oa lik'hemik'hale le litheko, Chemanalyst, theko ea lithium carbonate e ile ea lekoa ho $72,155/tonne kapa $72.15/kg karolong ea bobeli e felileng ka Phuptjane 2022, ho theoha ho $74,750/tonne karolong ea pele e felileng ka Hlakubele.
Khampani e ngotse:
Mehaho e mengata ea Likoloi tsa Motlakase e ile ea fokotsa tlhahiso ea tsona, 'me libaka tse ngata li ile tsa emisa tlhahiso ea tsona ka lebaka la khaello ea lisebelisoa tsa likoloi.
"Ntšetso-pele e akaretsang ka lebaka la COVID, hammoho le lipatlisiso tsa ba boholong Chaena mabapi le ho phahama ha litheko tsa Lithium, li phephetsa phetoho e tsitsitseng e lebisang moruong o motala,"
Theko ea lithium hydroxide Asia-Pacific, leha ho le joalo, e ile ea phahama $ 73,190 / tonne karolong ea bobeli, ho tloha ho $ 68,900 / tonne karolong ea pele, ho boletse Chemanalyst.
Pono ea tlhokeho ea thepa e fana ka maikutlo a hore 'maraka o thata
Ka Hlakubele, mmuso oa Australia o boletse esale pele hore tlhoko ea lefats'e ea lithium e ka nyolohela ho lithane tse 636,000 tsa lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) ka 2022, ho tloha ho lithane tse 526,000 ka 2021. e tsoela pele ho phahama.
E hakantse hore tlhahiso ea lithium ea lefats'e e tla eketseha hanyane kaholimo ho tlhokahalo ho isa ho lithane tse 650,000 tsa LCE ka 2022 le lithane tse limilione tse 1.47 ka 2027.
Keketseho ea tlhahiso ea lithium, leha ho le joalo, e kanna ea se khone ho fihlela tlhoko e tsoang ho bahlahisi ba betri.
Khamphani ea lipatlisiso Wood Mackenzie e boletse esale pele ka Hlakubele hore matla a betri ea lithium-ion ea lefats'e ka bophara a ka nyoloha ka makhetlo a mahlano ho isa ho 5,500 gigawatt-hora (GWh) ka 2030 ho tloha 2021 ho arabela mererong ea kholo ea EV.
Jiayue Zheng, bahlahlobisisi ba Wood Mackenzie, ba itse:
"Mmaraka oa koloi ea motlakase (EV) o etsa hoo e ka bang 80% ea tlhokahalo ea betri ea lithium-ion."
"Litheko tse phahameng tsa oli li tšehetsa 'maraka o mongata ho hlahisa maano a lipalangoang a se nang mosi, e leng se etsang hore tlhokahalo ea betri ea lithium-ion e phahame le ho feta 3,000 GWh ka 2030."
"Mmaraka oa betri ea lithium-ion o se o bile le khaello selemong se fetileng ka lebaka la tlhokahalo e ntseng e eketseha ea 'maraka oa EV le litheko tse ntseng li phahama tsa thepa e tala.Tlas'a maemo a rona a mantlha, re rera hore phepelo ea betri e ke ke ea fihlela tlhokahalo ho fihlela 2023. ”
"Mmaraka oa betri ea lithium-ion o se o bile le khaello selemong se fetileng ka lebaka la tlhokahalo e ntseng e eketseha ea 'maraka oa EV le litheko tse ntseng li phahama tsa thepa e tala.Tlas'a maemo a rona a mantlha, re rera hore phepelo ea betri e ke ke ea fihlela tlhokahalo ho fihlela 2023. ”
"Re lumela hore ho tsepamisa maikutlo hona ho lithium ho bakoa haholo ke hore lefapha la merafo ea lithium le sa ntlafatsoe ha le bapisoa le nickel," feme e ngotse lipatlisisong.
"Re hakanya hore li-EV li tla ikarabella ho feta 80.0% ea tlhoko ea lefats'e ea lithium ka 2030 ha e bapisoa le 19.3% feela ea phepelo ea nickel ea lefats'e ka 2030."
Ponelopele ea theko ea Lithium: Likhakanyo tsa bahlahlobisisi
Fitch Solutions ka ponelopele ea eona ea theko ea lithium bakeng sa 2022 e hakantsoeng hore theko ea lithium carbonate ea boleng ba betri naheng ea China e ka ba $21,000 ka tonne selemong sena, e bebofatsang $19,000 ka tonne ka 2023.
Nicholas Trickett, mohlahlobi oa tšepe le merafo oa Fitch Solutions o ile a ngolla Capital.com, a re:
"Re ntse re lebelletse ho fokotseha ha litheko selemong se tlang ha merafo e mecha e qala tlhahiso ka 2022 le 2023, litheko tse phahameng tse tsitsitseng li senya tlhoko e 'ngoe ha bareki ba ntse ba rekoa ka lebaka la ho reka likoloi tsa motlakase (e leng eona mokhanni oa mantlha oa kholo ea tlhokahalo), le bareki ba bangata. koala litumellano tsa nako e telele tsa ho tlohela mosebetsi le basebetsi ba morafong. ”
Feme e ne e le mothating oa ho ntlafatsa ponelopele ea theko ea lithium ka lebaka la litheko tse phahameng tsa hajoale le liphetoho maemong a moruo, ho boletse Trickett.
Fitch Solutions e bolela esale pele hore phepelo ea lithium carbonate lefatšeng ka bophara e tla eketseha ka 219kilotonnes (kt) lipakeng tsa 2022 le 2023 le keketseho e 'ngoe ea 194.4 kt lipakeng tsa 2023 le 2024, Trickett o boletse.
Ka ponelopele ea theko ea lithium bakeng sa 2022 ho tsoa ho mofani oa data oa moruo Khoebo ea Economics e lebelletsoeng hore lithium carbonate naheng ea China e tla rekisoa ho CNY482,204.55/tonne qetellong ea Q3 2022 le CNY502,888.80 ka likhoeli tse 12.
Ka lebaka la ho hloka botsitso le ho se tsitse ha phepelo le tlhoko, bahlahlobisisi ba ka fana ka likhakanyo tsa nako e khuts'oane feela.Ha ba fane ka bolepi ba theko ea lithium bakeng sa 2025 kapa ponelopele ea theko ea lithium bakeng sa 2030.
Ha u shebalithiumlikhakanyo tsa theko, hopola hore likhakanyo tsa bahlahlobisisi li ka ba 'me li fositse.Haeba u ka rata ho tsetela ho lithium, u lokela ho etsa lipatlisiso tsa hau pele.
Qeto ea hau ea matsete e lokela ho ipapisa le maikutlo a hau a ho ipeha kotsing, tsebo ea hau 'marakeng ona, ho ata ha potefolio ea hau le hore na u ikutloa u phutholohile hakae ka ho lahleheloa ke chelete.'Me le ka mohla u se ke ua kenya chelete ho feta kamoo u ka khonang ho lahleheloa ke eona.
Nako ea poso: Sep-17-2022